The Oscars were reasonably short (3:17), reasonably entertaining, and not terribly surprising. Jon Stewart was very funny (Gaydolf Titler!), Helen Mirren was elegant even while saying the word “cojones,” and a whole lot of foreigners won awards. Several of the acceptance speeches were actually quite touching and sweet, which is rare.

I correctly predicted 13 out of 24, same as last year. I note that while I intentionally avoided matching Entertainment Weekly’s predictions in the short categories because of their poor track record, this year we split: EW got the documentary short right, I got the animated short, and we both missed the narrative short.

The big winner of the night was “No Country for Old Men.” That’s only the second time since I started doing top 10 lists in 1999 that my pick for the year’s best film actually won the Oscar for Best Picture. (The other time was “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.”) Am I starting to have the same tastes as the Academy? Am I turning into an old white liberal rich man? I hope so!

“No Country” won four prizes. The second biggest haul was three awards for … “The Bourne Ultimatum”? It won all three of its categories (editing, sound editing, and sound mixing) — not bad, considering the first two “Bourne” films didn’t even get nominated for anything.

After the jump, the complete list of winners, in case you didn’t watch the show and haven’t been anywhere else on the Internet yet today.

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I correctly predicted 13 out of 24 awards last year, and I was very proud of that, as a lot of categories last year had no obvious frontrunner. So I think I’m on a hot streak right now. I’m feelin’ good about these picks. Bet on ‘em. I’m goin’ 24 for 24 this year, baby!

Best Picture
Nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood.
Should win: I believe No Country was the best film of 2007 — and lookee here, it was nominated for Best Picture, too! (It doesn’t always turn out that way.)
Will win: It’s gonna win, too. Atonement doesn’t have a chance (a film rarely wins Best Picture without having a director nomination), Juno is the “it’s cute, but let’s be serious here” entry, Michael Clayton just doesn’t have the momentum, and too many people think There Will Be Blood is weird.

Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men; Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Jason Reitman, Juno; Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
Should & will win: The Coens. They’ve got the momentum to win it, having already taken awards from quite a few other guilds and critics groups.

Best Actor
Nominees: George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah; Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises.
Should win: I saw no better performance all year than Jones’ in Valley of Elah. That man is a marvel.
Will win: … but nobody saw that movie, and besides — they’d rather vote for Jones in No Country for Old Men. Mortensen is out, considering his is the film’s only nomination. Depp and Clooney are both Hollywood favorites, but they can’t pass Day-Lewis, who’s been lauded for this role since before the movie was released.

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Jerry Seinfeld presented the Oscar for Best Documentary at the Academy Awards last week, and he used the opportunity to go off on a couple of Seinfeldian tangents. Here is a transcript:

A few years ago, I was the subject of a documentary called “Comedian,” which won nothing and made even less. But it was good, it was so good that as a direct result, I have been asked to be here tonight to present the award for outstanding documentary feature. And I love documentaries. I find them to have a very real quality.

And I know all the nominees are excited, because when you are nominated, you’re being told, “We think you might be the best. MIGHT. We won’t know definitely until you get all dressed up and get in a room together with all the other people, and on TV, because if by some chance it should turn out that you are not the best, we all want to see the look on your face when you get the news.”

I’m a huge fan of movies in general. I go all the time. I’ve noticed in theaters now they’re running some announcement trying to get you to pick up the garbage from around your seat. Oh, OK! Let me bring my orange jumpsuit and a wooden stick with a nail in it, too! Maybe I’ll work my way down the highway after the credits roll.

I’m not pickin’ nothin’ up! I’m the one that threw it down. How many different jobs do I have to do here?! There is an agreed-upon deal between us and the movie-theater people, it’s understood by every single person in this room. The deal is, YOU rip us off on overpriced, oversized crap that we shouldn’t be eating to begin with, and in exchange for that, when I’m done with something [holds out hand as if holding a soda cup], I open my hand [opens hand, letting the cup fall]. I’m not stickin’ my hand down into a dark hole to try and pry out three Goobers that have been soda-welded there since “The Shawshank Redemption” — which is not a nominee this evening, but these five incredibly depressing movies are. [Lists nominees; presents award.]

It was a good routine, typical Seinfeldian observational humor, and it got laughs. Not laughing, however, was John Sinno, producer of the nominated documentary “Iraq in Fragments.” On Friday, every movie critic and industry writer in the universe (even me) got this whiny e-mail from him:

An open letter to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

I had the great fortune of attending the 79th Academy Awards following my nomination as producer for a film in the Best Documentary Feature category. At the Awards ceremony, most categories featured an introduction that glorified the filmmakers’ craft and the role it plays for the film audience and industry. But when comedian Jerry Seinfeld introduced the award for Best Documentary Feature, he began by referring to a documentary that features himself as a subject, then proceeded to poke fun at it by saying it won no awards and made no money. He then revealed his love of documentaries, as they have a very “real” quality, while making a comically sour face. [I guess that's open to interpretation. I didn't take Seinfeld's expression on that joke to be "sour," merely deadpan.] This less-than-flattering beginning was followed by a lengthy digression that had nothing whatsoever to do with documentary films. [What?! An irrelevant tangent?! At the OSCARS?!?!] The clincher, however, came when he wrapped up his introduction by calling all five nominated films “incredibly depressing!”

While I appreciate the role of humor in our lives, [Do you really? Or are you just saying that?] Jerry Seinfeld’s remarks were made at the expense of thousands of documentary filmmakers and the entire documentary genre. [Then how come you're the only one complaining about it?] Obviously we make films not for awards or money, although we are glad if we are fortunate enough to receive them. The important thing is to tell stories, whether of people who have been damaged by war, of humankind’s reckless attitude toward nature and the environment, or even of the lives and habits of penguins. With his lengthy, dismissive and digressive introduction, Jerry Seinfeld had no time left for any individual description of the five nominated films. And by labeling the documentaries “incredibly depressing,” he indirectly told millions of viewers not to bother seeing them because they’re nothing but downers. [Actually, I think what he did was make a joke that was funny because it reflected what most people think about documentaries. It was based on a generalization, like 90 percent of all humor.] He wasted a wonderful opportunity to excite viewers about the nominated films and about the documentary genre in general.

To have a presenter introduce a category with such disrespect for the nominees and their work is counter to the principles the Academy was founded upon. To be nominated for an Academy Award is one of the highest honors our peers can give us, and to have the films dismissed in such an offhand fashion was deeply insulting. The Academy owes all documentary filmmakers an apology.

Seinfeld’s introduction arrived on the heels of an announcement by the Academy that the number of cities where documentary films must screen to qualify for an Academy Award is being increased by 75%. This will make it much more difficult for independent filmmakers’ work to qualify for the Best Documentary Feature Award, while giving an advantage to films distributed by large studios. Fewer controversial films will qualify for Academy consideration, and my film Iraq in Fragments would have been disqualified this year. This announcement came as a great disappointment to me and to other documentary filmmakers. I hope the Academy will reconsider its decision.

On a final note, I would like to point out that there was no mention of the Iraq War during the Oscar telecast, though it was on the minds of many in the theatre and of millions of viewers. It is wonderful to see the Academy support the protection of the environment. Unfortunately there is more than just one inconvenient truth in this world. Having mention of the Iraq War avoided altogether was a painful reminder for many of us that our country is living in a state of denial. As filmmakers, it is the greatest professional crime we can commit not to speak out with the truth. We owe it to the public.

I hope what I have said is taken to heart. It comes from my concern for the cinematic art and its crucial role in the times we’re living in.

John Sinno
Academy Award Nominee, Iraq In Fragments
Co-Founder, Northwest Documentary Association

Sinno does make a good point in stating that most awards are prefaced with some kind of tribute to the craft involved (writing, editing, art direction, etc.). But that is not true of the “best picture” awards. When they present Best Picture, Best Animated Film, Best Foreign-Language Film, and Best Documentary, there’s usually just a little banter and then a list of the nominees. They don’t talk about how animation works, or how amazing it is that movies are being made in foreign languages. They just do some shtick and hand out the trophy. True, they don’t usually make fun of the category, either, but come on. Lighten up a little.

And Sinno completely loses me with his next-to-last paragraph, the one about how there was no mention of the Iraq War during the Oscars. Guess what, John: There was no mention of pedophile priests or fundamentalist Christians, either (the topics of the other nominated documentaries). And there wouldn’t have been any references to global warming (and I’ll grant you there were too many) were it not for the fact that “An Inconvenient Truth” had been discussed and debated extensively in the media for the past year and was now the frontrunner to win, with a former U.S. vice president in attendance to support it.

Mention of the Iraq War was not “avoided,” as you put it; it just didn’t come up. Do you really think liberal Hollywood has somehow magically forgotten about the Iraq War and how much they’re against it? That’s absurd! Believe me, everyone in that room (along with most of America) was just as opposed to the Iraq War as you are. The fact that they failed to turn the Oscars into an anti-war demonstration does not indicate that they have gone into a state of denial and are pretending Iraq doesn’t exist. Global warming didn’t get mentioned last year, but I assure you, lots of people were still concerned about it. The recurring themes of any given Oscar ceremony don’t necessarily indicate the Number One Thing People Are Thinking About. They mostly just reflect what’s “big” at the moment with regard to the nominees, and “An Inconvenient Truth” was the high-profile “message” film this year. That’s all it means, nothing more.

Also: I would bet money that if “Iraq in Fragments” had won, this letter would not have been written.

So I ask you, readers: Were you offended by Seinfeld’s appearance at the Oscars? (I’m talking about if you actually saw it. You can’t go by my transcript; it’s always funnier in the delivery.) Did you think, at the time, that he was out of line, or that it was inappropriate? Or did that viewpoint not even occur to you until you saw John Sinno’s letter? I was astonished at the idea of someone as mainstream and un-edgy as Jerry Seinfeld being considered offensive, but I’m curious what others think.

Wow, was everyone off on their Oscar predictions. Yeah, we got most of the big ones right (Scorsese, Mirren, Whitaker, Hudson, etc.), but everything else was all over the map.

“Pan’s Labyrinth” wins three — the second-highest total of the night — yet fails to win Best Foreign-Language Film, which seemed like its most obvious victory.

“Dreamgirls,” which led the Oscars with eight nominations, got only two wins. Three of the five Best Song nominees were from “Dreamgirls,” yet it still managed to lose that category.

“An Inconvenient Truth,” which everyone figured was a lock for Best Documentary, did indeed win that award. But it also won Best Song, thus putting it ahead of the much-ballyhooed “Babel,” which got only one prize all night long. Poor “Babel.” Poor, crappy “Babel.”

There were surprising upsets (Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy for Best Supporting Actor; “Happy Feet” over “Cars” for Best Animated Feature), but there were some comforting sure things, too. Helen Mirren is gorgeous, classy, and supremely talented; we should give her awards any chance we get. Martin Scorsese has finally won an Oscar, which helps to right a lot of the unbalance in the universe.

And though “The Departed” wasn’t the best film of 2006 — I’m not even sure it was the best of the five Best Picture nominees — it’s likable enough that we can be happy with its winning the big prize. I know people who didn’t see “The Departed,” and I know people who weren’t blown away by it. But I don’t know anyone who actually disliked it, the way a lot of people have disliked certain past Best Pictures (“Crash,” “Titanic,” “American Beauty,” and “The English Patient,” to name a few). We can feel good about “The Departed.”

Most of all, I am happy about this: I correctly predicted 13 out of 24 awards. That’s not very good, but it’s better than my friend Chris Clark, who routinely outguesses me but who this year only got 11 right. SUCK IT, CLARK!

* * *

As for the show itself:

I’m browsing around the Interwebs, and I’m discovering that I seem to be in the minority for liking the show! In fact, I thought it was one of the most diverse and entertaining broadcasts of recent years. I liked the opening montage of nominees, I liked the dancers making silhouettes of movie images, I liked the medley of movie sound effects as created by a choir of humans, I liked the song by Will Ferrell, Jack Black, and John C. Reilly, and I liked carefully watching Jennifer Hudson’s breasts to see if they would fall out of her dress. (Beyonce, meet Be-ouncy.)

All that stuff was slightly different from the norm, a little creative, a little vaudeville-variety-show-Ed-Sullivan-y. I didn’t love everything about the show — still lots of dull tributes and special awards and so forth — but overall, I came away from it with positive feelings. Maybe it’s just me. Maybe it was the seven doughnuts and one liter of Diet Dr Pepper that I consumed over the course of the broadcast.
* * *

The winners:

Picture: “The Departed”
Director: Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
Actor: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
Actress: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
Original Screenplay: “Little Miss Sunshine”
Adapted Screenplay: “The Departed”
Cinematography: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Editing: “The Departed”
Foreign-Language Film: “The Lives of Others”
Documentary: “An Inconvenient Truth”
Animated Film: “Happy Feet”
Makeup: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Art Direction: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Sound Mixing: “Dreamgirls”
Sound Editing: “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Visual Effects: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Costume Design: “Marie Antoinette”
Original Score: “Babel”
Original Song: “I Need to Wake Up,” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
Animated Short: “The Danish Poet”
Documentary Short: “The Blood of Yingzhou District”
Live-Action Short: “West Bank Story”

It’s a crazy, wide-open year for the Oscars. Usually the film with the most nominations is the frontrunner for Best Picture — except that this year, for the first time in history, the film with the most nominations, “Dreamgirls,” didn’t get a Best Picture nomination.

Furthermore: The total number of nominations for the five Best Picture contenders (26) is the lowest in decades. For the first time since the very first Oscars, none of the Best Actor nominees are from Best Picture films. None of the Best Picture films have Best Cinematography nods.

So it’s difficult to predict an overall winner. As Entertainment Weekly pointed out, if “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” wins the four technical Oscars it’s nominated for, that could easily be more than any other film gets. A situation where no film gets more than one Oscar is not impossible, too.

Here are my predictions. I usually do fairly well, although that whole “Crash” thing last year upset everybody.

BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Letters from Iwo Jima,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” “The Queen”
Should win: Of these five, “The Queen” is the best film, though “The Departed” is right up there.
Will win: No film that is wholly or largely in a foreign language has ever won Best Picture, so “Babel” and “Letters from Iwo Jima” are out. No film whose only acting nomination is for Best Actress has ever won Best Picture, so “The Queen” is out. Only once has a remake ever won Best Picture (”Ben-Hur”), so “The Departed” has the odds against it. Of course, so does “Little Miss Sunshine,” since it’s very rare for a film to win Best Picture without being nominated for Best Director. My point? If we let history be our guide, none of these films are likely winners, but obviously one of ‘em has to win. I think it’s going to be “The Departed,” due largely to the Academy’s affection for Martin Scorsese.

(My friend Chris Clark, who routinely out-guesses me, is calling for “Little Miss Sunshine” in an upset. If he turns out to be right, then I will officially start tailoring all my predictions to match his from now on.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Clint Eastwood, “Letters from Iwo Jima”; Stephen Frears, “The Queen”; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Babel”; Paul Greengrass, “United 93″; Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
Should win: Paul Greengrass did the most impressive work with the haunting “United 93″ — but I suspect if I were an Academy voter, I’d probably vote for Scorsese anyway.
Will win: Whether they think he deserves it for “The Departed” or not, everyone in Hollywood wants Martin Scorsese to be an Oscar winner. It’s just how the world should be.

BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Blood Diamond”; Ryan Gosling, “Half Nelson”; Peter O’Toole, “Venus”; Will Smith, “The Pursuit of Happyness”; Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
Should win: Whitaker’s work as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin truly is outstanding. O’Toole got an honorary Oscar two years ago, so it’s not like he’ll die empty-handed if “Venus” turns out to be his last worthy performance. My sentimentality only goes so far.
Will win: While O’Toole is a more beloved Hollywood figure than Whitaker, I think quality will win out and Whitaker will take home the prize.

BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Penelope Cruz, “Volver”; Judi Dench, “Notes on a Scandal”; Helen Mirren, “The Queen”; Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada”; Kate Winslet, “Little Children”
Should win: Mirren, no question. The others are good, even great in some cases, but none of them accomplish as much as Mirren.
Will win: This is the only real lock of the night. Mirren has been the front-runner since Day One, and no one is coming close to defeating her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”; Jackie Earle Haley, “Little Children”; Djimon Hounsou, “Blood Diamond”; Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”; Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed”
Should win: Hounsou’s performance is one-note, and his movie isn’t very good. Apart from that, all the nominees are worthy of the award. I’d give it to Murphy, though, who showed a dramatic new side of himself in “Dreamgirls.”
Will win: The horrible ads for the horrible “Norbit” certainly haven’t endeared Murphy to voters in the last few weeks, but I think his momentum is such that he’ll win anyway. He’s the one people have been talking about for months.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Adriana Barraza, “Babel”; Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal”; Abigail Breslin, “Little Miss Sunshine”; Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”; Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel”
Should win: Hudson blows the roof off with her show-stopping number in “Dreamgirls,” but let’s be honest: In the rest of the movie, she’s nothing special. Blanchett is the best of the lot.
Will win: Voters love Blanchett, but they’re used to loving her, so her performance in “Notes on a Scandal,” while excellent, doesn’t stand out. The “Babel” actresses cancel each other out. Breslin is too young. Hudson it is.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees: “After the Wedding,” “Days of Glory,” “The Lives of Others,” “Pan’s Labyrinth,” “Water”
Should win: I’ve only seen the last two, but “Pan’s Labyrinth” made my overall top 10 list for the year, so I’d be surprised if any of the others are better than it.
Will win: “Pan’s Labyrinth” is the favorite, especially since it has nominations in other categories, too, which helps reinforce it in voters’ memories.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: “The Black Dahlia,” “Children of Men,” “The Illusionist,” “Pan’s Labyrinth,” “The Prestige”
Should win: “The Black Dahlia” is impressive, but “Children of Men” is downright stunning with its lengthy tracking shots and various other effective uses of the camera.
Will win: The Academy seems to share my thinking on “Children of Men.”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “Babel,” “Letters from Iwo Jima,” “Little Miss Sunshine,” “Pan’s Labyrinth,” “The Queen”
Should win: The sharp, funny screenplay is really the best thing about “Little Miss Sunshine.”
Will win: It’s rare for a foreign-language screenplay to win, so that eliminates two of these (three, if you count “Babel”). “Little Miss Sunshine” is a lovable movie that a lot of voters do indeed love, its witty dialogue especially.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “Borat,” “Children of Men,” “The Departed,” “Little Children,” “Notes on a Scandal”
Should win: “Borat” was this year’s WTF? nominee, as the mostly improvised film is neither adapted nor a screenplay. (Academy rules say films based on previously used characters must be “adapted,” even if the actual film is brand-new. Hence, any sequel, or anything based on a TV show, as “Borat” is, is “adapted.”) Anyway, “Little Children” has a tight, literate screenplay that covers multiple characters in a smooth, entertaining way.
Will win: I’m going with a general “Departed” theme for the night and predicting it will win here, too.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: “Deliver Us from Evil,” “An Inconvenient Truth,” “Iraq in Fragments,” “Jesus Camp,” “My Country, My Country”
Should win: “Deliver Us from Evil” is a devastating expose of the Catholic Church’s cover-ups of sexual abuse, and is beautifully filmed and composed, too.
Will win: Doesn’t matter. “An Inconvenient Truth” has been the Hollywood favorite since it was released.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Nominees: “Cars,” “Happy Feet,” “Monster House”
Should win: I didn’t dig “Cars” all that much. It’s a step down for Pixar. “Happy Feet” is better. I’m sorry, but it’s true.
Will win: Be that as it may, “Cars” is the favorite.

BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: “Babel,” “Blood Diamond,” “Children of Men,” “The Departed,” “United 93″
Should win: “United 93″ is one of the most intense films I’ve ever seen, and it’s largely due to the careful editing. It’s really a masterpiece in that regard.
Will win: The editor of “The Departed,” Thelma Schoonmaker, has won twice before, also for Scorsese films. Seems only appropriate that she should win again on the night her boss finally gets one for himself, too.

BEST MAKEUP
Nominees: “Apocalypto,” “Click,” “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should win: “Pan’s Labyrinth” has amazing makeup effects. “Click” is a crap movie in which Adam Sandler looks old for a couple scenes. And I don’t even remember there BEING makeup in “Apocalypto.”
Will win: Entertainment Weekly summed it up perfectly: No one in the Academy has seen “Click,” and no one in the Academy is gonna vote for a Mel Gibson film. “Pan’s Labyrinth” it is!

BEST ART DIRECTION
Nominees: “Dreamgirls,” “The Good Shepherd,” “Pan’s Labyrinth,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” “The Prestige”
Should win: “Pan’s Labyrinth” is fanciful and ornate, but also very often darkly lit. “Pirates,” on the other hand, is sumptuous, detailed, and sparklingly photographed, highlighting every buckling swash.
Will win: “Dreamgirls” will have to win some technical awards, and this will probably be one.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees: “Apocalpyto,” “Blood Diamond,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Should win: The jungles of “Apocalypto” are quite strikingly conveyed. Plus, if it wins, it will be the first victory for sound engineer Kevin O’Connell — breaking his 18-nomination losing streak.
Will win: Musicals are generally favored in this category, making it “Dreamgirls.” Sorry, Kevin.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees: “Apocalypto,” “Blood Diamond,” “Flags of Our Fathers,” “Letters from Iwo Jima,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Should win: Tough call, but I’d go with “Letters” or “Apocalypto.”
Will win: The two Eastwood pictures cancel each other out, and nobody’s voting for “Apocalytpo” for anything. “Blood Diamond” doesn’t live in anyone’s memories for any reason. That makes it a “Pirates” night.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” “Poseidon,” “Superman Returns”
Should win: “Pirates” had more special effects total, and more individual ones that looked spectacular.
Will win: “Pirates.”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “The Devil Wears Prada,” “Dreamgirls,” “Marie Antoinette,” “The Queen”
Should win: It almost seems obvious that “The Devil Wears Prada” should win the costume award, right? But I have to say, the one thing “Marie Antoinette” had going for it was its fabulous, fabulous costumes.
Will win: “Dreamgirls” is the more Oscar-y movie, and that’s what generally takes this award.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: Gustavo Santaolalla, “Babel”; Thomas Newman, “The Good German”; Philip Glass, “Notes on a Scandal”; Javier Navarrete, “Pan’s Labyrinth”; Alexandre Desplat, “The Queen”
Should win: Philip Glass is a love-him-or-hate-him guy, and I love him.
Will win: Desplat’s “Queen” score seems to be the favorite here.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “I Need to Wake Up,” by Melissa Etheridge, from “An Inconvenient Truth”; “Listen,” by Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler, and Anne Preven, from “Dreamgirls”; “Love You I Do,” by Henry Krieger and Siedah Garrett, from “Dreamgirls”; “Our Town,” by Randy Newman, from “Cars”; “Patience,” by Henry Krieger and Willie Reale, from “Dreamgirls”
Should win: I’m not a fan of a lot of the music from “Dreamgirls,” these three new songs included. I would probably vote for Randy Newman just because I love Randy Newman. I’d be selfish like that.
Will win: Does “Dreamgirls” split the vote? Probably not: The other two times a film has had three nominations in this category (”Beauty and the Beast” and “The Lion King”), they’ve won something. But which “Dreamgirls” tune takes it? The one sung by Beyonce, of course, “Listen.”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Nominees: “The Danish Poet,” “Lifted,” “The Little Matchgirl,” “Maestro,” “No Time for Nuts”
Should win: Haven’t seen any of them.
Will win: “The Little Matchgirl.” Total guess.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Nominees: “Binta and the Great Ideas,” “Eramos Pocos,” “Helmer & Son,” “The Saviour,” “West Bank Story”
Should win: Haven’t seen ‘em.
Will win: Let’s go with the singing-and-dancing “West Bank Story.”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
Nominees: “The Blood of Yingzhou District,” “Recycled Life,” “Rehearsing a Dream,” “Two Hands”
Should win: Dunno.
Will win: “Two Hands” is about a guy who lost the use of one of his hands — and he was a piano player. Inspiring!

The Oscars will air LIVE at 5:30 p.m. PST (8:30 p.m. EST) Sunday on ABC.

First of all, Jon Stewart was great. His jokes were consistently funny and smart, the pre-recorded bits were hilarious, and his responses to the evening’s events were all on the mark. He was everything a host should be: funny, charming, respectful of the Oscar legacy, but not too serious about it.

Now then. The huge shock of “Crash” winning Best Picture was the night’s only real surprise, but it was a doozy. “Brokeback Mountain” was a lock. The polls of Academy insiders and Hollywood types had everyone 100 percent sure it would win.

But when you look at the night, it makes sense. It’s not like “Brokeback” was sweeping the Oscars up until the end. It had lost Cinematography (which was a surprise), and it had lost its three acting nods (which wasn’t).

However, “Brokeback” HAD won Best Director. Best Picture and Best Director usually match up. Tonight’s split marks only the 21st time out of 78 that that’s happened. (It happened a lot more frequently in the early days of the Oscars, at a time when directors were still viewed mostly as studio employees rather than artists who put their own imprimatur on their work. During the period of 1968-1980, considered to be a golden age of great directors and great films, it happened only once.)

When all was said and done, “Brokeback” had three Oscars — which is also how many Best Picture “Crash” had. And “King Kong.” And “Memoirs of a Geisha,” which everyone HATED.

That’s right, folks. No sweeps at all. The most Oscars anything won was THREE, and four movies did it. That’s the smallest haul for the “big winner” of the night since 1949. A 56-year streak of the most-awarded film always having at least four wins, and tonight we broke it. (Five is the average “most wins” number.)

(This year really was a return to old-fashioned Hollywood, as they kept telling us. Before 1949, there were six separate years where nothing won more than three awards. In 1940, no film won more than two Oscars, and five films got that many. And the second year the Oscars were given out, for films from 1928-29 [they went August-July in those days], the awards were completely even in their distribution: Seven awards were given, and they each went to a different film.)

What this big distribution of awards says to me is that while there were many excellent films last year, there was nothing that jumped out as being the clear-cut most awesome blow-you-away best picture. I noticed that when I compiled my top 10 list. My top three or four films could have gone in any order, really.

Some big shut-outs this year. “Munich” had five nominations and got nothing. “Good Night, and Good Luck” had SIX and also got nothing.

All four acting awards were their films’ only wins, despite multiple nominations for each of them.

Thanks to my 11th-hour decision to change my prediction for Best Supporting Actor, I correctly guessed 16 out of 24 awards. (It would have been 15 if I’d stuck with Matt Dillon.) My friend Chris Clark, who beats me every year, got 21 — a truly impressive figure. He and I only differed in seven categories, and in six of those instances, he was right. (We both missed the pimp number winning Best Song. I mean, who saw THAT coming?)

In the 17 categories where our predictions were identical, we both missed two. We had “Brokeback” for Cinematography and Best Picture; it won neither. But I think everyone mis-called Best Picture, so I don’t feel too bad about it.

For the record, here is the list of winners:

Best Picture: “Crash”
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
Actress: Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”
Supporting Actor: George Clooney, “Syriana”
Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”
Director: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
Foreign Film: “Tsotsi,” South Africa
Adapted Screenplay: “Brokeback Mountain”
Original Screenplay: “Crash”
Animated Feature Film: “Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
Art Direction: “Memoirs of a Geisha”
Cinematography: “Memoirs of a Geisha”
Sound Mixing: “King Kong”
Sound Editing: “King Kong”
Original Score: “Brokeback Mountain”
Original Song: “It’s Hard out Here for a Pimp,” from “Hustle & Flow”
Costume Design: “Memoirs of a Geisha”
Documentary Feature: “March of the Penguins”
Documentary Short: “A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin”
Film Editing: “Crash”
Makeup: “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe”
Animated Short: “The Moon and the Sun”
Live Action Short: “Six Shooter”
Visual Effects: “King Kong”

Here are my predictions for the Oscars, which commence live at 8 p.m. Eastern/5 p.m. Pacific this Sunday on ABC.

Best Picture:
Nominees: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Capote,” “Crash,” “Good Night, and Good Luck,” “Munich”
Should win: Except for “Crash,” of which I’m not a fan, I think all the nominees would make worthy winners. Forced to choose, however, I would go with “Brokeback Mountain,” which is a more resonant and haunting story than the others.
Will win: The film with the most nominations usually wins Best Picture, and despite some last-minute momentum from “Crash,” I believe it’s going to be a “Brokeback” night. (Take that as you will.)

Actor:
Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”; Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow”; Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”; David Strathairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Should win: Strathairn, Ledger and Hoffman are all phenomenal, but I’d give my vote to Strathairn, perhaps because his work as a fearless journalist hits so close to home, being a craven pseudo-journalist myself.
Will win: One of the few almost-sure bets tonight is Hoffman. Ledger starred in the more famous film, but Hoffman’s performance was showier and more attention-grabbing. Plus, he’s been around longer and has racked up more honorable performances. This is Ledger’s first, because we’re not counting “10 Things I Hate About You.”

Actress:
Nominees: Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”; Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”; Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice”; Charlize Theron, “North Country”; Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”
Should win: Felicity Huffman, no question. Her work in “Transamerica” is the very picture of honest, professional, emotional acting.
Will win: Unfortunately, “Transamerica” doesn’t have much support generally, and it’s not a great film. “Walk the Line,” on the other hand, has an actress everybody loves in a simple, mainstream story. The Oscar goes to Reese Witherspoon. (Nobody cares about “North Country”; Knightley should be stunned at even being nominated; and Judi Dench only got nominated because someone called the Academy and said, “Um, excuse me? Dame Judi Dench was in a movie, so … you’ll probably want to be nominating her, I guess?”)

Supporting Actor:
Nominees: George Clooney, “Syriana”; Matt Dillon, “Crash”; Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man”; Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”; William Hurt, “A History of Violence”
Should win: Of those five, I’d probably give it to Giamatti just so everyone can quit talking about how he keeps being overlooked.
Will win: Gyllenhaal is overshadowed by Ledger, Giamatti’s role isn’t meaty enough, and Hurt is only onscreen for 10 minutes and is goofy/weird for all of it. That leaves Dillon and Clooney. I was thinking Clooney would be skipped because he’s nominated in other categories, but as of Sunday afternoon, I’ve changed my mind no that. So now my prediction is a win for Clooney.

Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Amy Adams, “Junebug”; Catherine Keener, “Capote”; Frances McDormand, “North Country”; Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”; Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain”
Should win: If you haven’t seen “Junebug,” I urge you to do so at once. Amy Adams is absolutely captivating. She gets my vote in a heartbeat.
Will win: Adams has a chance. This is a very unpredictable category, and often one that rewards performances in otherwise-unnominated movies. But the buzz seems to be for Weisz as the murdered wife seen in flashbacks throughout “The Constant Gardener.” So I predict Weisz.

Director:
Nominees: Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”; Bennett Miller, “Capote”; Paul Haggis, “Crash”; George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”; Steven Spielberg, “Munich”
Should win: All are worthy, but Ang Lee is worthiest for making a story that can be summarized in two words — “gay cowboys” — feel so universal, powerful and dramatic.
Will win: The Oscar voters agree with me here, I can feel it. Haggis and Miller don’t stand a chance (too new), Spielberg’s film never got a strong enough following, and while Clooney may one day be respected as a director, this won’t be the year he starts winning. Look how long it took Opie.

Foreign Film:
Nominees: “Don’t Tell,” Italy; “Joyeux Noel,” France; “Paradise Now,” Palestine; “Sophie Scholl - The Final Days,” Germany; “Tsotsi,” South Africa.
Should win: I’ve only seen “Joyeux Noel” and “Tsotsi,” so I can’t really judge.
Will win: The buzz is for “Tsotsi,” a South African story about a gangster who kidnaps (and is tamed by) a baby. “Paradise Now” is the best film, by most accounts, but it’s too controversial to win, especially with Jewish groups protesting its nomination because Palestine isn’t officially a country, yada yada yada. If there’s an upset, it could be from “Sophie Scholl,” which is, after all, about the Holocaust.

Adapted Screenplay:
Nominees: Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, “Brokeback Mountain”; Dan Futterman, “Capote”; Jeffrey Caine, “The Constant Gardener”; Josh Olson, “A History of Violence”; Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, “Munich”
Should win: For me it’s a toss-up between “Brokeback Mountain” and “A History of Violence,” both of which are lean, efficient, exquisitely well-structured stories.
Will win: McMurtry and Ossana probably deserve an award for taking a sparse short story called “Brokeback Mountain” and working it into a beautiful full-length screenplay.

Original Screenplay:
Nominees: Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, “Crash”; George Clooney & Grant Heslov, “Good Night, and Good Luck”; Woody Allen, “Match Point”; Noah Baumbach, “The Squid and the Whale”; Stephen Gaghan, “Syriana”
Should win: “Match Point” is Woody Allen’s best script in, I don’t know, 15 years. Considering he writes about one a year, that’s pretty impressive.
Will win: “Crash” all the way. Voters want to reward this movie.

Animated Feature Film:
Nominees: “Howl’s Moving Castle,” “Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride,” “Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
Should win: “Howl” and “Corpse Bride” have their charms, but come on. How can you not love — and I mean LOOOOVE — the Wallace & Gromit movie?
Will win: W&G earn the cheese.

Art Direction:
Nominees: “Good Night, and Good Luck,” “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire,” “King Kong,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” “Pride & Prejudice”
Should win: The others are great, but nothing matches the magical world of Harry Potter for imagination and detail.
Will win: I think this is where things start to look up for “King Kong,” which so many people wanted to love — before it came out, people thought it would be a major Oscar contender — and which certainly deserves SOME recognition.

Cinematography:
Nominees: “Batman Begins,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Good Night, and Good Luck,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” “The New World”
Should win: The landscapes of the West have seldom looked so beautiful as in “Brokeback Mountain.”
Will win: “Batman Begins” isn’t a serious contender amongst these prestige films, the black-and-white of “Good Night” is hard to appreciate, “The New World” has been entirely forgotten by every one living in the new world, and people hated “Memoirs.” That leaves everyone’s favorite: “Brokeback Mountain.”

Sound Mixing:
Nominees: “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” “King Kong,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” “Walk the Line,” “War of the Worlds”
Should win: The difference between this and Sound Editing is this: Sound Mixing is for the actual sounds actually recorded by the AV geeks on the set and in the lab afterward, while Sound Editing is for the way the sound effects and made-up sounds are combined with the dialogue and music. That said, the Sound Mixing award should go to “Walk the Line,” which seamlessly blends music and dialogue and makes them part of one musical story.
Will win: “Walk the Line” really is an Oscar kind of movie, and here’s another chance for the Academy to vote for it.

Sound Editing:
Nominees: “King Kong,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” “War of the Worlds”
Should win: “King Kong,” for its many fictitious and frightening sound effects deployed so realistically.
Will win: “King Kong.”

Original Score:
Nominees: Gustavo Santaolalla, “Brokeback Mountain”; Alberto Iglesias, “The Constant Gardener”; John Williams, “Memoirs of a Geisha”; John Williams, “Munich”; Dario Marianelli, “Pride & Prejudice”
Should win: Having recently re-watched parts of “Pride & Prejudice,” I’m smitten again with Marianelli’s lush, romantic score.
Will win: John Williams cancels himself out, nobody remembers the music in “Constant Gardener,” and “Pride & Prejudice” ain’t goin’ nowhere. It’s a “Brokeback” night, remember?

Original Song:
Nominees: “In the Deep” from “Crash,” Kathleen ‘Bird’ York and Michael Becker; “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from “Hustle & Flow,” Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard; “Travelin’ Thru” from “Transamerica,” Dolly Parton
Should win: I have no particular feelings about any of these songs.
Will win: There isn’t enough overall love for “Transamerica,” so count Dolly out. And while “Hustle & Flow” is beloved, and while Eminem did win an Oscar for a rap song a few years ago, I really don’t think the Academy is quite ready to give an Oscar to a song called “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp.” That leaves “In the Deep,” from “Crash,” which is even more beloved.

Costume:
Nominees: “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” “Mrs. Henderson Presents,” “Pride & Prejudice,” “Walk the Line”
Should win: Just to be crazy, I’d vote for “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.” The costumes really are very whimsical.
Will win: It’s a tough one. Nobody’s going to vote for “Charlie” for anything, “Mrs. Henderson Presents” is more about the ABSENCE of costumes, and everyone hates “Geisha.” Considering all they had to do for “Walk the Line” was put people in clothes from the 1950s and ’60s — ooh, real hard — that’s probably what the Academy will vote for, the big sillies.

Documentary Feature:
Nominees: “Darwin’s Nightmare,” “Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room,” “March of the Penguins,” “Murderball,” “Street Fight”
Should win: “Murderball” is by far the strongest entry here.
Will win: On the rare occasions that a documentary does anything interesting at the box office, it usually portends Oscar victory, too. So bring on the penguins!

Documentary (short subject):
Nominees: “The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club,” “God Sleeps in Rwanda,” “The Mushroom Club,” “A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin”
Should win: Haven’t seen ‘em.
Will win: Entertainment Weekly is calling for “The Death of Kevin Carter,” and who am I to argue with scripture?

Film Editing:
Nominees: “Cinderella Man,” “The Constant Gardener,” “Crash,” “Munich,” “Walk the Line”
Should win: “Munich” boasts some extraordinarily suspenseful scenes, and suspense is all about the editing.
Will win: “Crash” probably takes home the gold for interweaving its separate stories.

Makeup:
Nominees: “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” “Cinderella Man,” “Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith”
Should win: Of these three boring choices, I guess it’s the “Chronic(what?)cles of Narnia.” (Seriously, “Cinderella Man”? What, for making a boxer’s eye look bruised? Geez!)
Will win: Yeah, “Narnia,” sure, why not.

Animated Short Film:
Nominees: “Badgered,” “The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation,” “The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello,” “9,” “One Man Band”
Should win: Haven’t seen ‘em.
Will win: “One Man Band” is from Pixar. Enough said.

Live Action Short Film:
Nominees: “Ausreisser (The Runaway),” “Cashback,” “The Last Farm,” “Our Time Is Up,” “Six Shooter”
Should win: Haven’t seen ‘em.
Will win: I’ll defer to scripture again: EW says “Ausreisser.”

Visual Effects:
Nominees: “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” “King Kong,” “War of the Worlds”
Should win: For me, it’s down to “King Kong” and “War of the Worlds.” Both looked fantastic, but there are moments in “King Kong” that look fake. I don’t recall a single fake-looking shot in “War of the Worlds,” though, and that includes some very impressive long takes that required a lot of post-production to make them look right.
Will win: But nobody’s thinking about “War of the Worlds,” from way back in May. “King Kong” gets it.

For an alternate view, I refer you to my friend Chris Clark. He makes predictions every year, and every year he gets more right than I do — BUT JUST BARELY! Usually one or two. I’m confident, however, that this is the year I overtake him. Look at his picks anyway, though, if you want a second opinion. But I’m telling you: I’m right this time.

Here are this year’s Academy Award nominations. Discussion follows.

Best Picture:
“Brokeback Mountain”
“Capote”
“Crash”
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
“Munich”

Actor:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”
Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow”
Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line”
David Strathairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck”

Actress:
Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica”
Keira Knightley, “Pride & Prejudice”
Charlize Theron, “North Country”
Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

Supporting Actor:
George Clooney, “Syriana”
Matt Dillon, “Crash”
Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain”
William Hurt, “A History of Violence”

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, “Junebug”
Catherine Keener, “Capote”
Frances McDormand, “North Country”
Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”
Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain”

Director:
Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
Bennett Miller, “Capote”
Paul Haggis, “Crash”
George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Steven Spielberg, “Munich”

Foreign Film:
“Don’t Tell,” Italy
“Joyeux Noel,” France
“Paradise Now,” Palestine
“Sophie Scholl - The Final Days,” Germany
“Tsotsi,” South Africa.

Adapted Screenplay:
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, “Brokeback Mountain”
Dan Futterman, “Capote”
Jeffrey Caine, “The Constant Gardener”
Josh Olson, “A History of Violence”
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, “Munich”

Original Screenplay:
Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, “Crash”
George Clooney & Grant Heslov, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Woody Allen, “Match Point”
Noah Baumbach, “The Squid and the Whale”
Stephen Gaghan, “Syriana”

Animated Feature Film:
“Howl’s Moving Castle”
“Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride”
“Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit”

Art Direction:
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
“Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire”
“King Kong”
“Memoirs of a Geisha”
“Pride & Prejudice”

Cinematography:
“Batman Begins”
“Brokeback Mountain”
“Good Night, and Good Luck”
“Memoirs of a Geisha”
“The New World”

Sound Mixing:
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe”
“King Kong”
“Memoirs of a Geisha”
“Walk the Line”
“War of the Worlds”

Sound Editing:
“King Kong”
“Memoirs of a Geisha”
“War of the Worlds”

Original Score:
Gustavo Santaolalla, “Brokeback Mountain”
Alberto Iglesias, “The Constant Gardener”
John Williams, “Memoirs of a Geisha”
John Williams, “Munich”
Dario Marianelli, “Pride & Prejudice”

Original Song:
“In the Deep” from “Crash,” Kathleen ‘Bird’ York and Michael Becker
“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from “Hustle & Flow,” Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard
“Travelin’ Thru” from “Transamerica,” Dolly Parton

Costume:
“Charlie and the Chocolate Factory”
“Memoirs of a Geisha”
“Mrs. Henderson Presents”
“Pride & Prejudice”
“Walk the Line”

Documentary Feature:
“Darwin’s Nightmare”
“Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room”
“March of the Penguins”
“Murderball”
“Street Fight”

Documentary (short subject):
“The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club”
“God Sleeps in Rwanda”
“The Mushroom Club”
“A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin”

Film Editing:
“Cinderella Man”
“The Constant Gardener”
“Crash”
“Munich”
“Walk the Line”

Makeup:
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe”
“Cinderella Man”
“Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith”

Animated Short Film:
“Badgered”
“The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation”
“The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello”
“9″
“One Man Band”

Live Action Short Film:
“Ausreisser (The Runaway)”
“Cashback”
“The Last Farm”
“Our Time Is Up”
“Six Shooter”

Visual Effects:
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe”
“King Kong”
“War of the Worlds”

There are a few disappointments here, and a few surprises, but nothing that makes me cry or scream or despair. “Brokeback Mountain” tops the list with eight nominations, which is a fairly average number for the top film to have. The five Best Picture nominees match up with the five Best Director nominees (for the first time since 1981), meaning there were no Best Pictures that somehow directed themselves, or Best Directors whose movies somehow failed to be among the best pictures.

In other words, this is a pretty ordinary, unsurprising list of Oscar nominations.

Nonetheless, some observations:

Among the feature documentaries, I have only seen three; the other two are obscure. “Street Fight,” about a 2002 mayoral campaign in which an upstart tried to unseat a long-time leader, has only played in a few cities, none of them L.A. or New York (except its premiere at the Tribeca Film Festival). “Darwin’s Nightmare” has been shown only slightly more extensively. And what about “Grizzly Man”? Not even an option. The documentary wing of the Academy made its list of 15 films that it considered good enough to be possible nominees, and “Grizzly Man” wasn’t on it.

Only a makeup nomination for “Revenge of the Sith”? The “Star Wars” films don’t generally get acting nods, but their technical achievements usually get noticed. Strange to omit it this year, when it’s finally the last one.

Like last year, the five Best Picture nominees are not box-office blockbusters. The most lucrative so far is “Crash” at $53 million, though “Brokeback Mountain” will pass that mark this weekend. The five top grossers for 2005 were, in order, “Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith,” “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire,” “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” “War of the Worlds” and “King Kong.” Those are mostly good films, but the only people who would consider them the five BEST films of the year are people who haven’t seen “Munich” or “Brokeback Mountain” or “A History of Violence” (to name a few).

The top-grossing film of the year often gets nominated for Best Picture, but it seldom wins. “Titanic” (1997), “Forrest Gump” (1994) and “Rain Man” (1988) are the only three to accomplish that double-dip — top-grosser and Best Picture winner — since 1980.

The Paul Giamatti nomination is clearly an apology for NOT nominating him for “Sideways” or “American Splendor.” His performance in “Cinderella Man” is fine, but it never would have been noticed were it not for the prior snubs.

Keira Knightley? She’s pretty good in “Pride & Prejudice” — far better than anyone ever expected — but it’s a shame Joan Allen couldn’t have gotten that spot for “The Upside of Anger” instead. For that matter, it’s a shame Judi Dench got ANOTHER nomination, this time for an unremarkable movie in which her performance is equally unremarkable.

It’s nice to see the choices for Animated Film, none of which were computer-animated or called “Madagascar.”

This is the first year since I began reviewing films (1999) that I have seen NONE of the Foreign Language nominees. (A few are playing at the Portland International Film Festival in February, so perhaps I’ll see them before the Oscars.) But it’s hardly my fault: The only one that’s played in the United States at all so far is “Paradise Now.” So I guess it’s my fault for not seeing that one, but the other four, I take no responsibility for.

Finally, my friend and colleague Erik Childress has compiled a lot of interesting trivia about this year’s nominees at EFilmCritic.com. I recommend his article to you if you are interested in this sort of thing.

Thoughts on the Oscar ceremony

We had a splendid little gathering here at my apartment (space is limited; I apologize if you weren’t invited, and if we kept the party’s existence a secret from you so you wouldn’t feel hurt over not being invited) that included many junk foods and carbonated beverages. TiVo enabled us to rewind certain key moments so that we could say, “Who’s that woman they keep showing who looks like Sally Struthers or possibly Miss Piggy?” and “What on EARTH is Hilary Swank wearing?!”

Here are some thoughts summarizing the event.

- The ceremony was only 3 hours and 14 minutes, which must be some kind of record. I know the longest was just over 4 hours, so 3:14 feels short by comparison. I didn’t mind the obvious attempts to shorten things, like presenting technical awards in the audience or with all the nominees already onstage — though let’s be honest, how much time is really wasted waiting for people to walk to the stage? Maybe two minutes total, over the course of the show. The REAL time-waster is the various tributes and montages, which were blissfully few this year. There was no mid-show comedy piece (Rock’s bit early on where he talked to average movie-goers was the only one), and only one montage, for Johnny Carson. No special tributes to Movie Comedies or Music In The Movies or Movies That Star Fat People or anything like that.

- I don’t know why they didn’t have the actual singers sing the Oscar-nominated songs. The guy who wrote the winner, “Al Otra Lado Del Rio,” sang it in the film, and did a fine job. So why did Antonio Banderas have to sing it in the show? And since “Look to Your Path” was sung by a boys’ choir in “The Chorus,” why did it have to be sung by Beyonce Knowles with a boys’ choir relegated to the background at the ceremony? For that matter, why did Beyonce have to sing ANYTHING, let alone THREE SONGS?! Good grief, people. At least get someone who can actually, I don’t know, speak French to sing the French song.

- I watched Joan and Melissa Rivers’ pre-Oscar trainwreck on the TV Guide Channel solely because I knew it would be a trainwreck, like it always is. Joan knows NOTHING about the movies being nominated, and even less about the stars she’s interviewing. My favorite moment tonight: When she asked Imelda Staunton, who plays the title character in “Vera Drake,” “Did you get a chance to meet her?,” meaning the real Vera Drake. To which Staunton replied no, she didn’t, because Vera Drake was a fictional character.

- Selma Hayak and Penelope Cruz presented two awards together. I assume Oscar producers arranged that in order to prove once and for all that they are not the same person. Maybe Bill Pullman and Bill Paxton will co-present next year, or Cedric the Entertainer and Bernie Mac.

- Annette Bening and Clay Aiken have the same hair.

- Prince butchered every single name in the list of Best Song nominees. Had he never seen the list before? Did they not give him a chance to practice? Was he familiar at all with the alphabet, and what sounds letters are supposed to make?

- We think the “phantom” who walked Beyonce down the stairs during her “Phantom of the Opera” number was the same guy who scurried out to hand Chris Rock a microphone earlier in the show. He’s Oscar’s designated skulker.

- I assume the only reason P. Diddy was there to present an award was that he shot whoever was supposed to do it.

- I did not think Chris Rock would be a good host. I thought his jokes would all be about how white people are different from black people. I thought he would be sophomoric. I was wrong. His opening monologue was savagely funny, mocking Hollywood pretension fearlessly, but doing so in a way that was funny, and not just “outrageous for the sake of being outrageous.” Throughout the night, he was a confident, competent host, dignified but not stuffy.

- By the way, I correctly predicted 15 out of 24 awards. That’s about how well I usually do. I came in second at our gathering, behind my friend Chris, who got 16. He took home the prize, which this year was a frozen turkey. I should have gone with my gut and given Art Direction to “The Aviator” (since it won nearly every technical award it was nominated for), and Foreign Language Film to “The Sea Inside.” But come on, “Downfall” was about Hitler, and Holocaust movies always win! How was I to know?!

- The most surreal moment was only seen by Utah viewers. During commercial breaks, ads for tonight’s local newscast pimped a story about a bank robber who was killed by cops on Friday — old news now, but the new spin was that the dead guy’s lifelong friend was none other than Dell Schanze, aka Super Dell, an ultra-irritating local computer-store owner with uber-annoying TV commercials. So ABC 4 was promoting their “news” story tonight, in which they interview Super Dell about his bank robber friend (who, it turns out, he’s really only KNOWN since childhood, and didn’t hang out with much, because the guy was kinda crazy). Anyway, while Julia Roberts was presenting the nominees for Best Director, ABC 4 flashed a promo on the screen that read: “SUPER DELL’S BEST FRIEND KILLED BY POLICE: NEXT ON ABC 4 NEWS.” Classy, ABC 4. Classy.

Eric’s 2005 Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards, hosted by Chris Rock, who will make approximately 15,000 jokes about how black people are different from white people, will air live on ABC this Sunday, Feb. 27, at 8 p.m. EST, 5 p.m. PST. (That’s 6 p.m. MST and 7 p.m. CST. There, I did the math for you.) Here are my predictions on the winners.

Best Picture
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
Should win: Of these five, “Million Dollar Baby” is clearly the best, being nearly a perfectly constructed, sublimely understated, emotionally powerful film.
Will win: “The Aviator” is more along the lines of what usually wins — three hours long, deals with history, made by an acclaimed director — but I think “Million Dollar Baby” will edge it out.

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood, MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Taylor Hackford, RAY
Alexander Payne, SIDEWAYS
Mike Leigh, VERA DRAKE
Should win: Clint Eastwood, baby. The film is so well-directed, you don’t notice it’s being directed at all. It’s a smooth, well-oiled machine that sneaks up on you with its power. Still, it would be nice to see Scorsese finally win one.
Will win: Eastwood, methinks. Partly because support for “The Aviator” in general is waning while “Million Dollar Baby” is picking up steam … and partly because Eastwood won the Directors Guild of America award, which has correctly predicted the Oscar winner all but six times in the past 1,000 years, or something like that.

Best Actor
Don Cheadle, HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp, FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood, MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx, RAY
Should win: I’m torn between Eastwood and Foxx, but my sentimental choice is Eastwood, simply because, unlike Foxx, he’s very classy and hasn’t spent the last five years irritating the crap out of me.
Will win: Foxx seems to have this one locked up. People have been saying that since before he was even nominated.

Best Actress
Annette Bening, BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno, MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton, VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank, MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet, ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
Should win: Imelda Staunton has been my favorite since I saw “Vera Drake,” and nothing I saw after that has changed my mind. If you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor and do so, just to watch her.
Will win: They keep talking about how it came down to Annette Bening and Hilary Swank five years ago, too, for “American Beauty” and “Boys Don’t Cry,” and how Swank beat Bening then, too. But here’s the thing: Bening doesn’t even have a CHANCE this year. This supposed competition between them is commentators trying to make something out of nothing. Hardly anyone has seen “Being Julia,” and those who have agree it’s a mediocre film that happens to have a great performance by Bening. Meanwhile, “Million Dollar Baby” is well-regarded in all aspects, and Swank is worthy of the Oscar she’s going to win. And if Swank didn’t win it, Staunton would have, so it’s not like Bening should be cursing Swank’s name.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda, THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church, SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx, COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman, MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen, CLOSER
Should win: All five are worthy entries — maybe the only major category in which I have absolutely no qualms about who they chose. But I would go with Freeman, who provides much of the heart and soul in “Million Dollar Baby.”
Will win: It’s either Freeman or Church — Alda’s role is too small, Foxx won’t win twice in one night, and Owen’s film doesn’t have enough general support — and my money’s on Freeman.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney, KINSEY
Virginia Madsen, SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo, HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman, CLOSER
Should win: I love Blanchett in anything, but I was only a casual Portman fan until “Closer” (well, that and “Garden State”). I’d be happy to see either of them take home the gold.
Will win: Blanchett. Even detractors of “The Aviator” agree her portrayal of Katharine Hepburn is brilliant.

Best Adapted Screenplay
BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS
Should win: What you like about “Before Sunset,” “Finding Neverland” and “The Motorcycle Diaries,” if you like those films, is the performances, not the screenplays. “Sideways” has some excellent dialogue, but my vote is for “Million Dollar Baby,” which accomplishes the more difficult task of using dialogue sparsely and carefully, as opposed to merely wittily. Not to mention the fact that the whole screenplay is so perfectly structured, scene by scene, with nary an extraneous moment.
Will win: “Sideways” is the sort of film — quirky, intelligent, subtextual comedy — that gets honored in the screenplay category and almost nowhere else.

Best Original Screenplay
THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE
Should win: I used to favor “Eternal Sunshine” for this, but the more I think about “The Incredibles,” the more I admire its wit, wisdom and efficiency. “Vera Drake” was largely written by the cast through months of improvisations, and the scripts for “Hotel Rwanda” and “The Aviator” are solid but unremarkable.
Will win: “Eternal Sunshine,” for the same reasons as “Sideways.”

Best Documentary Feature
BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAME
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH
Should win: “Super Size Me” was one of the best films of ANY kind last year, making powerful statements while also being crowd-pleasingly entertaining.
Will win: … which is why it won’t win. The documentary prize usually goes to something Serious and Important. I’m guessing it’s “Born into Brothels,” which is about Calcutta prostitutes who raise their children to go into the same profession as their moms.

Best Foreign Language Film
AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY
Should win: I’ve only seen “The Chorus” and “The Sea Inside,” and I wasn’t blown away by either of them. The best foreign-language film of the year was “A Very Long Engagement,” which France refused to consider for its entry because, despite being written, directed and produced in France, in the French language, with an almost entirely French cast and crew, the French film board decided it wasn’t quite French enough. (They said the fact that it was financed by Warner Bros. — an AMERICAN company! — disqualified it.) For that reason alone, the film France put up instead, “The Chorus,” should NOT win — you know, just to teach the froggies a lesson.
Will win: “The Sea Inside” has more notoriety, but “Downfall” is about Hitler, and pretty much anything about the Holocaust usually wins any category it’s nominated for. It’s like I always say, the smart guys puts his money on Hitler.

Best Animated Feature
THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2
Should win: “The Incredibles.” “Shrek 2″ was a great film, but no classic. And “Shark Tale”? Come on. Get outta here with that “Shark Tale” business.
Will win: “The Incredibles.”

Best Cinematography
THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
Should win: Did you see “House of Flying Daggers”? And do you know what cinematography is? If the answer to both questions is yes, then you know which of these five films deserves the Oscar.
Will win: This is one of several categories where the highest-profile movie often wins, as opposed to the movie that actually deserves it. Expect “The Aviator” to take it.

Best Art Direction
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT
Should win: “Lemony Snicket” deserves it for the sheer imagination that went into making the film. Not a single scene was shot on location! It was all done on sound stages! That’s pretty cool.
Will win: I think “Lemony Snicket” will take it, though I will not be surprised if “The Aviator” sneaks up instead.

Best Costume Design
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY
Should win: “The Aviator” had sooo many characters, and all of them had to be dressed in period costumes ranging from the 1920s to the 1950s.
Will win: “The Aviator” will continue to dominate the technical categories, having been shut out of the other ones.

Best Editing
THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
Should win: None of these films is especially flashy as far as editing goes. Just like its directing, though, “Million Dollar Baby” benefits from editing that’s so good you don’t notice it — editing that serves the story, in other words, rather than the editor’s desire to be acknowledged.
Will win: “The Aviator,” pulling a “Lord of the Rings” and getting lots of technical awards and no acting ones.

Best Makeup
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

Should win: “The Sea Inside” doesn’t even belong here, as the only makeup it employs is making Javier Bardem look slightly older and sicker than he is in real life. The work in “Lemony Snicket” is more inventive, but the “Passion of the Christ” makeup is more realistic and more useful to the film’s purpose.
Will win: I’m predicting a shut-out for “Passion of the Christ,” with this award going to “Lemony Snicket.”

Best Original Score
FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET’S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE
Should win: I don’t remember a single note of music from any of these movies, though I do recall thinking the score in “Passion of the Christ” complemented the film’s emotional impact.
Will win: John Williams doesn’t really NEED another Oscar, but I bet he gets one for “Harry Potter.”

Best Original Song
“Accidentally In Love” from SHREK 2
“Al Otro Lado Del R�o” from THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
“Believe” from THE POLAR EXPRESS
“Learn To Be Lonely” from THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
“Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)” from THE CHORUS
Should win: None of these pieces of crap, that’s for sure.
Will win: If “Phantom of the Opera” had more support in general, this tacked-on, just-for-the-movie song would be a shoo-in. But the movie sucks and everyone knows it. Instead, the cheesy “Believe” from the cheesy “Polar Express,” sung by the cheesy Josh Groban, will win.

Best Documentary Short Subject
AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN’S MARCH
SISTER ROSE’S PASSION
Should win: No clue. Haven’t seen a one.
Will win: No Holocaust material here, so nothing’s a sure thing. “Mighty Times” deals with racism and segregation, but “Autism Is a World” deals with, um, autism. So it’s a toss-up. I say “Autism Is a World” wins, but I say that randomly.

Best Animated Short Film
BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN
Should win: See previous category.
Will win: My Magic 8 Ball suggests “Lorenzo.”

Best Live Action Short Film
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP
Should win: Again, no clue.
Will win: Entertainment Weekly notes that “Everything in This Country Must” is the only American-made film in the category, and that seems as good a reason as any to predict it.

Best Sound Editing
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2
Should win: Seems to me that an animated film — where ALL the sounds are created, as opposed to recorded live on a set — deserves this award, and the sound in “The Incredibles” is pretty incredible.
Will win: “The Incredibles” probably has more general sentiment behind it than the other two.

Best Sound Mixing
THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2
Should win: The music-heavy “Ray” deserves it for keeping everything — songs, dialogue, background — at juuuuust the right balance.
Will win: “The Aviator.”

Best Visual Effects
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2
Should win: “I, Robot,” what are you even doing here? Go away. Between the other two, I have no preference, as both were supreme examples of incorporating special effects seamlessly into a story.
Will win: I don’t predict much Oscar love for “Spider-Man 2,” unfortunately. “Harry Potter” takes this one.