It’s Oscar season, and there’s lots to talk about!
First, check out my exclusive Cinematical piece on the changes they’ve made for this year’s show.
If you’re in the mood for company, you can join me at Cinematical during the show, the first hour of which (5:30-6:30 Pacific Time) I’ll be live-blogging. It should be fun! Maybe! I’ve never live-blogged before!
Finally, here are my predictions. I’m on a streak here, having correctly predicted 13 out of 24 categories last year and the year before. I want that number to go up, though. I’m pretty sure my ESP is more in tune with Academy thinking this time around. No time to get into the details of why I think these will be the winners — just mark ’em down, because THESE ARE GOLD! (A complete list of nominees can be found here.)
Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Animated Feature: “WALL-E”
Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
Foreign-Language Film: “The Class”
Cinematography: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Costume Design: “The Duchess”
Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Original Score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Original Song: “Down to Earth,” from “WALL-E”
Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”
Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Animated Short: “Presto” (it played in front of “WALL-E,” and you loved it)
Live-Action Short: “Toyland (Spielzeugland)”
Documentary Short: “The Witness”
The Oscars are Sunday at 5:30 p.m. (PST) on ABC.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if you hit more than 13 with this list – there’s more shoe-ins this year than in any year in recent memory.
Eric,
I’m so glad you picked Presto for animated short. In my opinion best Pixar short ever. I agree with Clumpy, there seemed to be a lot of guarantees this year. What documentary could possibly beat Man on Wire?
Aw man, your predictions are usually a lot more in-depth than this. I always enjoyed reading them.
I am still mad at the Academy for snubbing the Dark Knight. That should have gotten at least a nomination for Best Picture and Director. I will therefore be boycotting the Acadamy Awards.
Not that it matters, as I haven’t ever watched them…
I haven’t heard anyone bring this up yet, but was there a reason “Dear Zachary: A Letter to a Son About His Father” didn’t receive a nomination for best documentary? I haven’t seen any of the films that were nominated so I have no idea if it is deserving, but “Dear Zachary” has received some overwhelming positive reviews (including on this site), and when all of the Oscar snub talk began I didn’t see anyone mention it. Am I missing something? Was it even eligible to be nominated?
I believe “Dear Zachary” was ineligible for Oscar Nomination because it played on TV (MSNBC) which according to the rules of the Academy is not allowed for a new film to qualify for nomination.
I thought it was featured at one of the film festivals. I guess that doesn’t count as a theatrical release, and if it didn’t get one then that would make sense.
I think if Sean Penn gets Best Actor for “Milk” it would be the upset of the evening. Almost everyone else is going for Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” — so this might either make or break you in the % correct among your peers.
I watched the British (BBC — NOT BBC America) feed of the BAFTAs where Rourke also got the Best Actor award. He had to be “bleeped” several times — even after the 9pm “watershed” and even on the BBC. I wonder if anyone in Hollywood has had a little chat with him about what he can or can’t say if he does win.
That said, I have seen “Milk” but gladly leave things like “The Wrestler” to film critics & others who get paid to see such things. Even then I have read a few “best film I hope NEVER to have to watch again” reviews.
On “Dear Zachary”: The short answer is, it was eligible to be nominated, and it just wasn’t.
Playing at film festivals does not count as a theatrical release. But “Dear Zachary” was theatrically released, for at least a week in NYC and LA, in accordance with Academy rules. It subsequently played on MSNBC, but the Academy only requires that any TV exhibition take place at least 60 days after the film’s initial theatrical run. That rule was met, as the theatrical run was in August and the MSNBC airing wasn’t until December.
The documentary branch of the Academy snubs at least one outstanding, obvious choice every year, and this year’s was “Dear Zachary.”
I am with Susquatch. I thoroughly enjoy reading the predictions every year. Hopefully this is just a one-year thing?
Good predictions Eric! I thought Penn was great in Milk but Rourke still got robbed. That was one of the best performances I’ve ever seen. “Presto” was robbed also. I mean, I didn’t see the animated shotr that won- but how can anything be better than “Presto”?
I must say that I was pleasantly surprised by Sean Penn winning for Milk. It seemed to go against the old “Who would Ernest Borgnine vote for” analysis. Maybe the actuarial tables are catching up with the Academy voters. . .
17 by my count. Impressive. You’re going to have to do more research on those minor categories, though.